The US Ministry of Finance declared the government budget surplus in December, 2014 at the level of two billion dollars. This fact automatically made the deficit for the year 2014 minimal since 2007. «The budget deficit for past twelve months amounted 488 billion USD in comparison with 560 billion USD in the year 2013»,
- explain the analysts from Panteon Finance.
The Ups and Downs Of The Budget Policy
The budget policy of the US government during Barack Obama’s second term
has dramatically improved. In 2009-2012 the deficit exceeded trillion USD. The
recession of the budget deficit became a priority in policy conducted by the
government. However republicans did not agree with such strategy. This
disagreement led to the numerous budget battles and arguments in point of the
public debt limit. But for now despite the republicans controlling both
chambers of Congress the difference between income and expense of the
government has significantly recessed.
What now?
At this stage investors are quite uncertain. This fact quite obviously
influences world stock markets. In their opinion this considers to be a pretext
for leaving to “safe harbors” such as USD, JPY and gold, and this fact lends
support to these instruments. But most likely this trend appears to be
short-termed and in the nearest future the investors will resume the increase
of long positions on stock markets. One of the drivers for this are exactly
ECB’s actions. The same actions of ECB will continue the impact on euro and
this will allow the price to test the minimums of 2005.
The price for USD/JPY for January, 14 wasn’t able to form a certain 5-3
formation which as a result displayed in the creation of the new local minimum.
Studying the internal structure of the price movement it may be suggested that
the pending main scenario still has a good potential but for its realization
one condition is necessary. As the analysts of Panteon-Finance explained, the
condition consists in creation of steady
pattern as a 5-3 formation. It is necessary for USD/JPY regrowth. Therefore
until the following pattern is formed it is recommended to stay out of the
given instrument.
Why Is Eurozone In The
Spotlight
The absence of significant news and events from Japan made market
participants focus on Eurozone in the light of coming session of ECB which is
expected on Jan. 22. The probability of starting of full-scale quantitative
alleviation remains high and at the moment is the main risk factor for the
common currency which saves bearish mood. UR/JPY probably will continue its
correction.
What To Expect From RUR and USD
But at the same time ruble is bargaining half-heartedly. Pair USD/RUR
noticeably recessed on Wednesday, Jan. 14. RUR fixed positive correction
against the background of oil price rising up to more than 48$ per barrel. Thus
pair American dollar against ruble is likely going to rise in price. As the
information background is quiet, there are no specific news. The investors have
already managed to generate a certain immunity to the current data. For now US
dollar is quoted near 65,24 remaining close to the levels of the session start.
The bidders spent a difficult and a jittery week. Two important parameters
remain in the focus of the market: changeable prices for oil and the conduct of
the pair EUR/USD. The oil quotes as before demonstrate the wonders of
flexibility.
No comments:
Post a Comment